Elon Musk’s promises tend to follow a pattern. They include a number ending in “-illion,” which refers to something that will be built or used, and will be completed in a few years so it’s not allowed to be “-illion” — and that’s before we get into continuous development as time slips by and the customer’s patience wears thin.
And now, of course: an ambitious new plan for orbital data centers, which Musk envisions as a giant assembly of solar-powered satellites. Musk hopes to use up to a million of these satellites to provide a nearly limitless source of computing power for AI, and has told staff that developing an AI computer in space will be cheaper than global data centers in just two to three years.
Another belief to ask is the size of these satellites, revealed in a presentation Musk gave this Sunday that gave a preview of his orbital data center map.
Based on the size comparison he provided and highlighted by PCMagthe “mini” version of the AI satellite will dwarf even SpaceX’s Starship rocket, which is the world’s largest rocket at about 408 meters long. It also means that it is much taller than the International Space Station, at 358 feet. Most of it comes from its solar panels, which will use the energy needed for 100 kilowatts of computing, Musk says.
No exact measurements were given, and Musk said this was a “rough estimate” of its final size, but it speaks to the absurd ambition of his vision. And that’s the tip of the “mini” type that he wants to give a bigger one in the future.
Since Musk first unveiled these plans last month, astronomers have feared that large arrays of satellites will block the view of deep space. Now, with estimates of the magnitude just revealed, the threat may be worse than feared.
“We thought the size we thought was crazy, but this image shows that we really underestimated what SpaceX is planning to do,” said Samantha Lawler, an astronomer at the University of Regina who wrote a recent warning about the impact of the galaxy on astronomy. PCMag.
The world tools needed to get this, well, off the ground, are also mind-boggling. To provide AI chips for data centers and other AI businesses, Musk announced a new facility called “Terafab,” to produce uber-advanced processors. It will cost $20 billion to build, he estimated, and will produce up to 200 billion — there’s a number suffix again — AI or memory chips. every year.
“We build Terafab, or we don’t have chips,” Musk said.
Putting one business on top of another, he also said that millions of Tesla Optimus robots will help keep the facility – just a fraction of the billions of Optimus components he says Tesla will produce every year thanks to Terafab’s chip production.
So, what’s the damage? Ars Technica it is estimated that the bare bones cost of running 1 million satellites would be much more billions dollars, which is roughly equal to SpaceX’s estimated budget before the expected IPO. When your billing budget is almost the same as a made-up and inflated figure of what your company is worth, you’re in trouble.
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